‘Dog Days of Summer’
Just two weeks ago Donald Trump was the aggregate polling leader in the national election. For the second time.
After the Democratic convention, Hillary Clinton saw a surge in her polling, which most attribute to a convention bounce. As of today, that bounce has mostly not faded, but there are some signs Trump may have hit bottom in the polling.
If you listen to media pundits and pollsters, most who are Clinton supporters, and nearly all who’ve gotten this race wrong multiple times, the race is over. Throw in the towel.
But when we look at a few polls, and historical trends, this Presidential race is close, and nowhere near being over.
Rasmussen released a poll today showing Clinton leading by 3 points. Clinton at 43% vs. Trump at 40%, Rasmussen isn’t my favorite poll, but in July, they were one of the first to see Trump’s polling surge immediately following the FBI presser that saw Clinton’s character indictment.
The very accurate LA Times is giving Clinton a 1.5 point lead.
Still arguing Clinton has a 3 to 4 point aggregate lead, not the 7 to 8 point lead showing up on RCP and other aggregates.
Whether a 3 point or 8 point lead, where does this stand with past election seasons?
In October 1980, Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by 4 points. Reagan went on to win in a landslide.
in August 1960, Richard Nixon had a 6 point lead over JFK. JFK went on to win the Presidency.
In August 1964, LBJ had a whopping 36 point lead over Barry Goldwater. LBJ won in a landslide.
Point is, this election season is unique because there are no shortage of pundits on social media who keep getting it wrong, while spinning out an endless series of polls, and analysis that show how Clinton is now set to whomp Trump.
But we still have three months to go…